Title : What the F – SB?
link : What the F – SB?
What the F – SB?
(A post from D-Jay -- rendered all the more pertinent by this insane interview in the Daily Beast and this very unnerving message from Steve Bannon.)
WTF? That’s it? Rudy Giuliani’s half-baked Russian propaganda drop in the New York Post is Trump’s October surprise – the dreaded “Big Smear?” As Joseph laid out in detail in his last post, and as the mainstream media has also noticed, it was laughingly inept -- the very antithesis of good intelligence agency tradecraft. I thought the FSB was better, much better, than that.
They are.
So the question is…why?
With the clear involvement of Russian intelligence, why was this so poorly done?
At this point, we can only speculate, but several possible answers come to mind:
1. The “best” is yet to come.
They are.
So the question is…why?
With the clear involvement of Russian intelligence, why was this so poorly done?
At this point, we can only speculate, but several possible answers come to mind:
1. The “best” is yet to come.
Could be, but time is running out, especially with all the entirely predictable early voting going on this election cycle. What’s more, stupid stuff like this only serves to undermine the believability of any better-crafted smears which might come later.
2. The focus this time will be on direct tampering with the count.
Not impossible, but looking at all the statistical evidence from elections past (the “red shift,” etc.) the Republicans are already doing this – and it’s widely believed that anything more than a 5% swing would be too obvious. What exactly could Putin & Company add to this? A more plausible scenario, at least to Joseph and me, is that Putin’s hacking has uncovered the mechanisms by which the Republicans have been doing this and he’s been holding (or using) the info as party-level kompromat.
3. Putin wants Trump to lose.
“WTF!!!” I hear you saying. But bear with me for a minute while I explore this hypothesis.
First of all, let’s ask why Putin has been backing Trump in the first place.
Is it because he thinks he’ll be a competent leader who’ll put a priority on improved U.S. – Russian relations? Yeah, right. Trump? Putin isn’t anywhere near that foolish.
Is it because he views Trump as an asset that can be controlled? No doubt that’s part of it, but this is a dangerous game. There is an excellent chance it will eventually come to light and be recognized by a critical mass of the American people as the treason it is. At that point, the whole thing could easily blow up in their faces and lead to a unified USA on an anti-Russian crusade.
I would put it forward that Putin’s game is much bigger – and more insidious – than that. That what he really wants is nothing less than the collapse of the United States, at least as an effective deterrent to him.
2. The focus this time will be on direct tampering with the count.
Not impossible, but looking at all the statistical evidence from elections past (the “red shift,” etc.) the Republicans are already doing this – and it’s widely believed that anything more than a 5% swing would be too obvious. What exactly could Putin & Company add to this? A more plausible scenario, at least to Joseph and me, is that Putin’s hacking has uncovered the mechanisms by which the Republicans have been doing this and he’s been holding (or using) the info as party-level kompromat.
3. Putin wants Trump to lose.
“WTF!!!” I hear you saying. But bear with me for a minute while I explore this hypothesis.
First of all, let’s ask why Putin has been backing Trump in the first place.
Is it because he thinks he’ll be a competent leader who’ll put a priority on improved U.S. – Russian relations? Yeah, right. Trump? Putin isn’t anywhere near that foolish.
Is it because he views Trump as an asset that can be controlled? No doubt that’s part of it, but this is a dangerous game. There is an excellent chance it will eventually come to light and be recognized by a critical mass of the American people as the treason it is. At that point, the whole thing could easily blow up in their faces and lead to a unified USA on an anti-Russian crusade.
I would put it forward that Putin’s game is much bigger – and more insidious – than that. That what he really wants is nothing less than the collapse of the United States, at least as an effective deterrent to him.
A fracturing of American society and a descent into chaos – the more violent the better – would be the ideal outcome from Putin’s point of view.
Trump has already gone a long way towards accomplishing this goal. The U.S. is more divided against itself than at any time since the Civil War. It is all too easy to imagine that, with a well-placed spark, the shooting will start.
What is the electoral outcome that would make this most likely?
Democrats being Democrats, a clear Trump win would be accepted by them and we would be on the road to out-and-out authoritarianism. At that point, would Don (forgive the pun), like any good mob boss who gained control of a much bigger and more powerful gang, really be willing to maintain total and undying allegiance to his old Russian godfather? Trump being Trump, would it take him very long to decide that HE should be the top dog?
I think not.
At that point, Trump would probably have enough control over the flow if information in the U.S. that whatever kompromat Putin has on him could either be squelched or just be dismissed as “fake news!” And as for the $400 million debt? Peanuts…if you have full control of the U.S. Treasury.
I’m also sure that Putin is enough of a student of history to remember the last time a Russian despot cooperated with an authoritarian leader of a more powerful country. That was Stalin joining forces with Hilter to dismember Poland. Soon afterwards, the Wehrmacht kept right on rolling into the Soviet Union, resulting in the deaths of millions and millions of Russians.
Not the kind of outcome Putin would like to see.
No, the best glide path for Vlad would be a Biden victory that is close enough for Trump to challenge, and for the members of the T-cult to be so radicalized and cut off from reality that they would gladly take up arms on his behalf.
In short…exactly what we are seeing on the horizon now.
Too paranoid?
God, I hope so!
Trump has already gone a long way towards accomplishing this goal. The U.S. is more divided against itself than at any time since the Civil War. It is all too easy to imagine that, with a well-placed spark, the shooting will start.
What is the electoral outcome that would make this most likely?
Democrats being Democrats, a clear Trump win would be accepted by them and we would be on the road to out-and-out authoritarianism. At that point, would Don (forgive the pun), like any good mob boss who gained control of a much bigger and more powerful gang, really be willing to maintain total and undying allegiance to his old Russian godfather? Trump being Trump, would it take him very long to decide that HE should be the top dog?
I think not.
At that point, Trump would probably have enough control over the flow if information in the U.S. that whatever kompromat Putin has on him could either be squelched or just be dismissed as “fake news!” And as for the $400 million debt? Peanuts…if you have full control of the U.S. Treasury.
I’m also sure that Putin is enough of a student of history to remember the last time a Russian despot cooperated with an authoritarian leader of a more powerful country. That was Stalin joining forces with Hilter to dismember Poland. Soon afterwards, the Wehrmacht kept right on rolling into the Soviet Union, resulting in the deaths of millions and millions of Russians.
Not the kind of outcome Putin would like to see.
No, the best glide path for Vlad would be a Biden victory that is close enough for Trump to challenge, and for the members of the T-cult to be so radicalized and cut off from reality that they would gladly take up arms on his behalf.
In short…exactly what we are seeing on the horizon now.
Too paranoid?
God, I hope so!
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