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Title : A mega-theory of the Trump era
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A mega-theory of the Trump era

In case you have not seen it yet, here is Nancy Pelosi's response to that instantly-infamous letter from White House counsel Lionel Hutz. That letter -- overflowing with obvious Trumpisms -- bears no resemblance to the kind of writing we might expect by someone with a law degree. I was reminded me of Trump's 2016 clean bill of health, ascribed to Trump's physician, Dr. Nick Riviera.

(Have I mis-recalled the names? Sorry.)

You no doubt already know that Turkey has launched a Blitzkrieg against our Kurdish allies. The question is: Why now?

Teevee talking heads seem fixated on the theory that Trump can be turned round by the last person with whom he has spoken -- in this case, Erdogan. It's true: Trump can be impulsive and easily swayed -- but he also has a certain reptilian survival instinct. This insane decision has not played out well for him. 

An alternative theory has cropped up: Perhaps Trump was "bribed" by way of his twin towers in Istanbul.

The problem with the bribery theory is that the towers are not really his. They belong to a Turkish developer, who slapped the Trump name on the structures in exchange for a rather small annual fee. The estimates I've read range from $100,000 a year to $5 million a year. Not a lot of money, if Trump really is the billionaire he claims to be. (Many would say he is not.)

However, that real estate deal could provide an excellent mechanism to hide a more substantial cash transfer. So we cannot dismiss the bribery theory.

But it doesn't sit well with me.

What bugs me is the timing and the rapidity. Why now? Trump knows full well that his betrayal of the Kurds damages his relationship with important Republican leaders in the senate, at a time he needs them most. Remember, Trump tried to sell out the Kurds on a previous occasion; cooler heads talked out of it.

About an hour ago, a talking head on MSNBC said of Trump's betrayal: "This isn't a quid pro quo. It's more like a quid pro no." In other words, Trump -- the ultimate transactional president -- got nothing from this move. This betrayal cannot help him; it can only damage him.

You know what this whole thing looks like to me? It looks to me as though Erdogan gave an order, and that Trump obeyed it.

What power does Erdogan have over Trump? And why would Erdogan play his "Trump" card now?

Let's look at the latter question. I think the timing was prompted by the impeachment. Erdogan must fear Trump's removal -- and Trump's reassurances probably would not have placated the Turkish leader. From Erdogan's point of view, it's now or never: He may never get another chance to destroy the Kurdish fighters and take over a huge chunk of Syria.

So that brings us back to the question of the "Trump" card. If my suspicion is right -- if Erdogan said "Do what I want or else" -- what does "or else" mean in this context?

I don't pretend to be able to prove what I'm about to say. The word "theory" is right there in the headline. But...hear me out.

For a couple of years now, I have privately concluded that the great secret of the Trump era is election rigging. Most people didn't pay much attention to the evidence of rigged tallies in Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016 -- in fact, Brad Friedman was the only reporter who looked into the question properly.

The hard fact is that there were polling places where the vote count substantially exceeded the number of voters. Trump's lawyers prevented the forensic examination of tabulation machines. If the tabulation were honest, why not allow an investigation? We know that Russia hacked into firms which make computerized election equipment and state voting databases. John Brennan has voiced strong suspicion that the Russians directly manipulated the 2016 vote in America, as has occurred in other countries, including Russia herself.

More than that: We have to consider the question of historical vote rigging over the past twenty years. Perhaps we should be speaking of an even longer period of time.

Trump's longtime friend, Roger Stone, is someone who would know all about the covert history of vote rigging. Say what you will about Stone: He has an undeniable expertise in the dark arts, and he has always been very plugged in to the ratfucker underworld. In this classic 2014 series on Stone (which I believe was written by Ryan Lizza), we learn of the five key methods used by Stone to commandeer elections. Here's number 5:

The fifth is vote suppression, of black and latino voters, who tend to poll democrat. The first four have been employed in elections that Stone has been involved in, with Stone often taking credit. The fifth has been employed alongside Stone’s efforts, though perhaps without the collusion of Stone.

It should be recalled that Lizza acquired access to an unpublished Stone autobiography.

Vote suppression -- through caging and allied tactics -- is quite real, and quite deadly to democracy. But I have long argued that the real crime is actual manipulation of the voting tabulation machines. This is the great unmentionable. If the truth became known, the nation would enter a period of unparalleled turmoil. Judges appointed by illegitimate presidents may have be replaced, the GOP might end, and God only knows who would go to jail.

That, I feel, is the real reason why Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and so many other Republicans have kissed Trump's ring, even though they obviously can't stand the guy. If Trump goes down, he brings the GOP down with him.

Many argue that Trump controls his Republican critics through the threat of backing a primary challenger. That can't be the case in all situations, as a moment's thought will tell you. Trump has not always succeeded when he backed a challenger. Besides, this theory does not explain why Ryan and other retired congressfolk remain silent about Trump's many obvious flaws. 

I posit that Trump keeps the GOP in line by threatening to reveal the Big Secret.

I further posit that Russia did the hacking dishonors in 2016. I strongly suspect that Putin's lads literally changed the vote totals in key areas. Obviously, Putin now knows the Republican party's Biggest Secret. He thus has the ability to bring down the party.

He has the ability to tell Trump what to do.

Let us further posit that Putin, for geopolitical reasons of his own, whispered this truth into Erdogan's ear.

That's the Trump card.

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